Is the last of the Lords looming?

So, will it happen? Will the House of Lords get the final stage of its overhaul and be dragged into the 21st century? The jury is out.

The House of Commons threw down something of gauntlet by voting for a totally elected second chamber, with an 80% elected option also receiving strong backing. Tony Blair showed just how far out of touch he is with the prevailing mood by voting for the 50% appointed/50% elected House of Lords - the option that was defeated by the biggest majority.

In the House of Lords a few days later it was the complete mirror image: no reform, no elected element.

I cannot see the 100% elected option getting much further, however. A significant number of MPs who voted for it actually don't support radical reform of the Lords. They voted for this option because they think that it has little chance of progressing, playing just the sort of political games that most of the public do not understand and certainly don't like. There was, however, a real majority for the option of having an 80% elected House of Lords and this would seem to be where we are heading.

There are still big issues to be addressed. High up the agenda must be the size of the reformed House and its role and these already seem to be getting lost in a largely irrelevant debate about what it should be called. We should first look at the functions of the new upper house and then properly analyse how many people are needed to carry out those functions. As to the key question: should there be any appointed members?

I think that 20% is about right, so long as it is kept away from the Prime Minister of the day. We need to create a system where people who would never stand for election but who can make a major contribution to the legislative process can be appointed for a fixed term.

I don't know whether this would meet the objections of insurance broker peer Lord Sheikh, who argued for the retention of the appointed second chamber but it does seem a sensible way of creating a distinctive role and culture for a second chamber.

Whether the reform makes any further progress will now depend on what appetite Gordon Brown has for a bitter fight with the opponents. If he takes it up on becoming Prime Minister it will probably dominate the first two to three years of his premiership, right up to a general election. Funnily enough there were two general elections in 1910 fought on the battleground of Peers v the People - a hundred years on it looks like the debate will still be raging.