Interesting times - not a curse but a blessing

The political landscape is changing dramatically. Within just a few months, the Conservatives have gone from being virtually dead in the water to posing a very real threat to Labour's prospects of winning a fourth term.

Then, just as the pundits were coming to terms with that seismic shift, the Liberal Democrats blundered into a leadership election of their own that will - whatever the two larger parties say - further alter the landscape.

This just leaves one certainty: that Gordon Brown will succeed Tony Blair as Prime Minister, probably in 2007 after Blair has celebrated 10 years in office. Or does it?

Business does not like political uncertainty, but it is going to have to get used to it over the next few years. Issues that matter to the insurance industry, such as fraud, compensation culture, pensions reform and regulation, will all be thrown into a melting pot that will be well and truly stirred.

The one issue that appears not to be high on the agenda at the moment - but could make a big comeback and, in so doing, destabilise Brown's bid for the Labour leadership - is the UK joining the euro. This has major implications for many insurers and brokers too.

If David Cameron keeps pushing the Tories back into the frame, sooner or later Labour will have to attack. His - and the Tories' - big weakness is Europe: a fault line running through the heart of the party. It destroyed them 10 years ago and could, if cleverly exploited, destroy them again. Is Brown the man to lead that attack? Probably not, as he is known to be sceptical himself about joining the single currency so could hardly attack Cameron with the sort of conviction that will be needed to prise open old wounds.

So is industry - any industry - ready for the huge policy shifts that are looming? In my experience, probably not, especially the insurance industry. Its political track record throughout the Thatcher years was absolutely dreadful. The challenge for it now is not to stick its head in the sand and pretend nothing has changed, but instead to look at this time as a huge opportunity. Everything is up for change. There are agendas to be written.